Cassandra

What 102,336 chess games reveal about how humans really play

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102K
Games Analyzed
7M
Positions Explored
6M
Unique Positions
100
Transposition Hubs

Who's Playing?

Elo Distribution
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The sweet spot is 1600–1800 — that's where the most games are played.

The Opening Illusion

Attribution

Players spend hundreds of hours studying openings. But how much does opening choice actually matter? We ran it like a marketing attribution problem.

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Elo Difference Impact
percentage point swing in score
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Opening Choice Impact
percentage point swing in score
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Score by Elo Difference

How much being higher or lower rated than your opponent affects your expected score.

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Score by Opening Choice

The top 15 openings and their actual win/draw/loss percentages. Notice how narrow the spread is.

Opening Code Games W / D / L
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The Positions That Matter

Pareto Analysis
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Master just 6 positions and you've covered a significant portion of all games played.

How Elo Changes Your Brain

Move Diversity

How player rating affects move selection in the starting position. Lower-rated players are more random overall but less diverse in their top choice.

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GMs have converged on what's right. They play with lower overall entropy (1.81) because 49% of their moves are concentrated in just their top choices.

Where Openings Collide

Transposition Hubs

These mid-game positions are reached through dozens of different opening lines. Master these and you cover openings you've never studied.

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How Long Do Games Last?

Game Length Distribution
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